Yogi to be the CM of UP again?

Ritesh Ranjan, INN/Chennai
@royret ,@Infodeaofficial 

Uttar Pradesh has already begun garnering all the limelight as the assembly elections are fast approaching.

The polls would be held about seven months away from now and speculation has already begun as to who will be the next Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh which is also popularly known as UP.


BJP may form the government but this time number of seats would be lesser than the last assembly election. It is expected that seats BJP might win is more than 200.The data and calculations show that BJP will come into power again and if everything goes right then Yogi Adityanath will continue as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh.

There is easy math behind the claim that BJP will be at the helm of affairs again in UP.

Caste politics plays a major part in UP elections. Among the whole population of the state, five percent are Yadavs, seven percent are Chamars and 14 percent are Muslims.

They are polarized voters, who don’t vote for anyone except their caste people or party.

Yadav votes for Samajwadi Party, Chamars vote for Bahujan Samajwadi Party and Muslims do not vote for BJP. However, there are exceptions to this.

An analysis of all these issues reveals that about 26 percent of the population in the fourth largest state in India would vote for BJP.

The rest of the population (74 percent) comprises Brahmin, Kshatriya, Vaishya Thakur, and others.

The key to victory for BJP lies with these 74 percent of the population as they mostly prefer BJP in the present circumstances.

The point is, even if 30 to 35 percent of the remaining 74 percent population of Uttar Pradesh vote for BJP, it will be in a strong position to form the government in the state.

Sources point that the good work done in the state with regards to improving infrastructure in the state is another plus point for the current Chief Minister.

Tremendous effort has gone into improving roads, water supply, and electricity supply in Uttar Pradesh.

Many in the state feel that infrastructure is better in the state under the present government.

This work has earned a good reputation among the crowd for Yogi Adityanath, particularly among the Hindu crowd.

There is more to all this. State residents also feel anti-social elements no longer pose a problem.

The present government has quelled them with an iron fist, most of the wanted criminals are either behind the bars or had been wiped out.

This has only enhanced its reputation among the public.

Challenges
However, it will still not be a smooth ride for BJP as challenges persist.

Recently Om Prakash Rajbhar, the founder of Bhartiya Samaj Party which was part of the NDA alliance has stepped out of it.

He was a cabinet minister in UP Government. Rajbhar has a stronghold in the Purvanchal area of Uttar Pradesh.

About seven to eight districts of Purvanchal are dominated by people from his caste.
Varanasi, Chandauli, Gazipur, Baliya, Mau, Jaunpur are localities where most of the
Rajbhar community resides.

On the other hand, Anuppuriya Patel, leader of Apna Dal and MP of Mirzapur do not seem to be happy with BJP.

Apna Dal is an alliance of NDA. Anupriya wanted a Ministry post for herself in central government and a Cabinet Minister post for her husband.       Mirzapur, Bhadohi, Prayagraj, Pratapgarh, Kaushambi, Chitrakoot are dominated by mostly Patels.

If she also moves out of NDA it will be tough for BJP to touch the magic number and form the government.

The talks are still going on and Anupriya Patel has recently met Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi.

There is another point that may play a spoilsport for BJP. The farmer’s protest will certainly have a bad impact on BJP.

Farmer leader Rakesh Tikait who comes from Western UP announced that farmers will not vote for BJP this time.

About eight districts in western Uttar Pradesh are dominated by Jatts.

Post riots of Muzaffarnagar, in 2015, Jats and Muslim votes in this locality were divided and BJP got the benefit of it in the 2017 assembly elections.

However, this time farmers’ protests have brought Jatts and Muslims together. Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is very active in this area these days.

RLD is in alliance with Samajwadi Party, so this time RLD and Samajwadi party will gain in this area.

A voter survey also says that BJP may lose 100 seats in Western UP.

Minor issues
Unemployment is also likely to be a challenge in the forthcoming assembly polls. But not all are of the view that it will be a major issue.

The state has been battling the unemployment problem for a very long time, the situation has not changed over the years.
As the election is seven months away nothing is sure right now. The situation may change depending on circumstances. If BSP and SP join hands and fight assembly election. The possibility will strong for BJP to form the government if BJP and BSP come together.

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